The paradox of personalisation

What is really “for you,” lipstick at the races, luxury brands buying old buildings, Rhode’s billion-dollar moment, week of Taylor Swift M&A, and Airbnb becomes your new favorite store.

Lately, I’ve been spending more time on social media, and it struck me how easily we blur the meaning of words. A “personalized” feed on Instagram. A “For You” page on TikTok. But the moment something is “recommended for you,” it’s also recommended for millions. My so-called bespoke recs? The Samba shoes. The butter-yellow sweaters. And the oval glasses. Ithink we’ve mistaken predictive for personal.

The algorithm reverse-engineers our patterns, feeds it back to us, and calls it individuality. Personal taste becomes probability math — and probability math always rounds you toward the average.

And maybe that’s the opportunity. True luxury in 2025 isn’t expensive at all. If you ask me, it’s curation, taste and personality. It’s anything rare enough not to show up on your feed. In other words: not what blends in, but what breaks through.

Caught my eye

I took this photo at arguably the most Instagrammable museum in Munich.

This week’s deep-dive

How celebrity beauty brands became serious business—and what’s coming next

Trends — what’s bubbling underneath the headlines

  • Formula 1: Sport or show?
    Most of the media attention last week was on the Monaco Grand Prix. Condé Nast Traveler even called Formula 1 the sport to travel for.

    What’s even more interesting? A sport that was once adrenaline-fueled and mostly male is now becoming… increasingly female. Over 40% of the global F1 audience are women. With that in mind, I was surprised to see that only two beauty brands are in the mix so far — Charlotte Tilbury sponsoring the F1 Academy, and Elemis partnering with Aston Martin. If I were a beauty CMO right now, I’d be sprinting to get in front of this audience.

  • Fashion’s new address? A Venetian palazzo.

    This week, Dries Van Noten — who retired from his brand last year — bought the 15th-century Palazzo Pisani Moretta. His plan? A cultural space for craftsmanship and exhibitions. A “house of crafts,” as he described it. Not headline-worthy on its own, except it’s part of a growing pattern: Bottega Veneta turned Palazzo Soranzo Van Axel into a private cultural residence. Dolce & Gabbana opened a boutique inside Palazzo Torres. OTB Group claimed a spot in Piazza San Marco.

    In 2025, nothing signals status like something rare, old, and crumbling in all the right ways — and Venice has a lot of it. In the race for differentiation, some are shortcutting straight to heritage — by simply buying it.

  • Wellness gets its annual performance review
    McKinsey just dropped its 2025 Future of Wellness report: we’re still obsessed with self-optimization — longevity, skincare, mental health, all of it — and still very willing to spend money on it. What stood out to me is that even the report itself flags uncertainty: it's unclear whether Gen Z and millennials’ obsession comes from genuine health awareness or from social media influence.

    Feels like we’re living in a virtuous cycle: influence drives behavior, behavior gets posted, and the content just fuels more influence. And at this point, no one can really tell where one ends and the other begins.

  • From checkout to check out

    From Where is a new startup that turns short-term rentals into curated storefronts. Like the rug in your Airbnb? Now you can buy it — directly from the host. It’s a very smart mix of hospitality and e-commerce. Hosts earn more. Brands get visibility. Guests shop the lifestyle they like.

    The upside? More ways to monetize taste. The downside? Even your holiday room is trying to sell you something.

Business moves, big numbers & “wait, what?”

  • Rhode is selling — faster than anyone thought. Rhode is selling to e.l.f. Beauty for $1 billion. It was just last week when I said here that this would require first proving the company’s operational capabilities in physical retail. But things moved quicker than probably anyone expected.

    I still think the deal is on the higher end of the revenue multiple range for a DTC-only brand (see the table below) — but of course, it all depends on the deal e.l.f. Cosmetics made with Hailey. If her personal brand generated $400 million in EMV (earned media value = the effective marketing budget the company didn’t spend), then valuations should be looked at differently anyway.

Year

Acquirer → Target

Headline price

Latest annual revenue disclosed

Price ÷ Revenue

Comment

2021

L’Occitane → Sol de Janeiro (83%)

US $450 m (full-company value)

US $60 m (2020)

7.5 ×

Was a top seller at Sephora and had an exclusivity agreement with the retailer starting in 2017

2021

Unilever → Paula’s Choice

US $2 bn

~ US $300 m (2021 est.)

≈ 6.7 ×

The brand was available at Sephora prior to its acquisition.

2021/24

Estée Lauder → Deciem (The Ordinary)

US $2.2 bn enterprise value

US $460 m (FY 2020-21)

4.8 ×

Ordinary was present in Sephora and Ulta since 2019

2023

e.l.f. Beauty → Naturium

US $355 m

US $90 m (FY 2023 est.)

3.9 ×

DTC-only brand at the time of acquisition

2023

L’Oréal → Aesop

US $2.53 bn

US $537 m (2022)

4.7 ×

Aesop operated 395 stores across 29 markets at the time of acquisition

2025

e.l.f. Beauty → Rhode

US $1 bn

US $212 m (2024)

4.7 ×

DTC-only brand at the time of acquisition

Results in 30 sec (or less)

Company

Results

Notes

Capri Holdings (Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo)

Revenue FY25: $5.17B (▼15.4% YoY)

Net Income FY25: $(645)M loss

Every brand down. Cleanup in progress — but no clear win yet.

Golden Goose

Revenue Q1 FY25: €164,5M (▲12% YoY)

DTC hits 76%. Store count up (+3). Blue Pool Capital (backed by Alibaba’s Joe Tsai) acquired a 12% stake, valuing the company at over €2.2B. Still no IPO

Framework of the week

Wish I were there - pop-ups,  collabs, etc.

Pencil in, book the ticket, or just follow on social media — choose your option and let’s discuss afterwards!

Thanks for reading! Have a great week.

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