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The Confidence Gap
Clinical gym memberships, the automation of micro-influence, Burberry stabilizes (maybe), PE flips L’Occitane back to IPO mode, and founders go to war with funds

If you want to understand where luxury, wellness, and consumer brands are headed, you have to understand macro. I was listening to Goldman's David Solomon this week, and his read is cautiously optimistic: global growth across the board, rates declining, public spending rising, trade strong. The one thing that could derail it? Consumer confidence. People are nervous about jobs, and nervous people don't spend. But one thing that's not hesitating: deal activity, and this week's news is proof.
Caught my eye
Prada’s deliberately stained and soiled sleeves at Milan Fashion Week

Trends — what’s bubbling underneath the headlines
Longevity as a Service
New clubs are integrating contrast therapy, IV drips, and hyperbaric chambers alongside strength and conditioning, merging gym and medical clinic into one. Equinox's "Optimize" program costs $40K/year and includes 100+ biomarker tests, personal training, sleep coaching, and nutrition planning — plus a diagnostics-led women's health program and GLP-1 protocols for members on weight loss drugs. The wellness industry is growing at 8.6% annually, outpacing tech and green energy. I think this is a great opportunity for consumer brands in wellness, beauty, or CPG, to use these clubs as the new retail channels, becasue high-intent consumers are already spending $500+/month there.
The Automation of Authenticity
Statusphere, an AI-powered micro-influencer marketing platform, raised $18M in Series A led by Volition Capital (total funding now $27M). What they do: automating all the manual workflows that make influencer marketing a nightmare to scale — creator sourcing, product fulfillment, compliance, and rights management. The mega-influencer era is over — the smart money is on micro-influencers who actually drive engagement and trust.
Business moves, big numbers & “wait, what?”
Burberry's turnaround is actually… working? The brand posted a 3% rise in comparable store sales in Q3 — driven by double-digit growth among Gen Z customers in Greater China and Asia Pacific.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic. Third Bridge's Yanmei Tang called it "more like a bottoming out after a weak base rather than clear evidence of a durable turnaround"— and the bigger challenge remains leather goods, where Burberry has struggled to create an iconic handbag business. Still, second consecutive quarter of improvement. Still, a win's a win.
The €6B Boomerang. L'Occitane is eyeing a US IPO less than two years after going private. Billionaire owner Reinold Geiger took the company private in 2024 at a €6 billion valuation. Now L'Occitane is working with JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley on a potential US listing as soon as this year potentially at a $7 billion valuation.
The math: €2.8 billion in sales last year, up 11.7%, driven by Sol de Janeiro. The Americas now accounts for 46% of sales, so a US listing makes sense. Classic PE playbook — take it private, clean up the portfolio, ride a hot brand, flip it back to public markets at a higher multiple.
Guess Goes Dark. Authentic Brands closed its deal to acquire 51% of Guess, valuing the company at $1.4 billion and taking it private. Guess does $6 billion in retail sales and becomes Authentic's second-largest brand behind Reebok. The Marciano family and CEO retain 49% and keep running operations.
Authentic CEO Jamie Salter on the thesis: "Although Guess is doing $6 billion, the question is, why isn't it doing $10 billion? The playbook: modernize marketing and social, push into entertainment and hospitality, expand globally. Salter's goal is $100 billion in portfolio sales within five years — Guess is just another brick.
Founder vs. Fund: Chip Wilson’s $25B Quest to "Save" Lululemon
Here's the backstory: Chip Wilson founded Lululemon in 1998, left the board in 2015 after clashing with management, and sold about half his 27% stake to private equity firm Advent International for $845 million in exchange for Advent getting two board seats.
Now Wilson is back and angry. Lululemon shares have lost nearly half their value as the brand gets eaten alive by Alo Yoga and Vuori. CEO Calvin McDonald is out with no successor lined up. Wilson says the board has prioritized Wall Street over product innovation and his challenge focuses on Mussafer and chair Marti Morfitt's roles at other underperforming consumer brands like Olaplex — essentially arguing Advent doesn't know how to run product-led companies.
His demands: he won't settle unless board chair David Mussafer (Advent's managing partner) and chair Marti Morfitt resign. He's nominated three new directors — including former On Running co-CEO Marc Maurer— but isn't seeking a seat himself since he owns a big stake in competitor Amer Sports (Arc'teryx, Salomon).
Adding to the chaos: activist Elliott has built a $1B+ stake and is pushing its own CEO candidate. This one's going to get messy before it gets resolved.
Wish I were there - pop-ups, collabs, etc.
Pencil in, book the ticket, or just follow on social media — choose your option and let’s discuss afterwards!
27.01.-28.01.26 | Paris - Mona Ayoub’s Dior Auction
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